This season will be different, plain and simple. New rules and a solid rookie class have set this up as a period of change in NASCAR.
Last season we saw the domination of Joe Gibbs Racing for 2/3 of the season. This season won't see the same. With the retirement of Carl Edwards the four car team lost a valuable veteran input and a serious title contender. Kenseth, Hamin, and Busch will continue to win races. They'll be competitive every week and fight at the top of field week in and week out. They just will not dominate in the same fashion they did last season with Edwards missing from the team.
Daniel Suarez is coming off the heels of his Xfinity Series Championship, but ask any rookie driver and they'll tell you that the Cup Series is an entirely different animal. Without a single start in the series, he will struggle out of the gate. When the series begins visiting tracks for the second time his production will pick up.
Stewart-Haas Racing has had a good three year run lead by the 4 team and Kevin Harvick. Now, standing on the horizon of Daytona, the team has new emblem on the front of the car. Switching from Chevy to Ford may not seem like a big deal, but I expect the team to stumble a bit.
Going from the coveted Hendrick chassis to building their own will pose problems early. I think the same situation as Suarez applies here. They'll struggle out of the gate but as they get more comfortable in their new skin production will increase. Will the level of domination of the 4 team return? Probably not. Their production level was so high I don't think they have much of a chance with a new manufacturer. At least for now.
The Chevy banner is now solely in the Hendrick stable. With Jimmie Johnson winning his 7th title last season and Dale Earnhardt Jr. making his return, momentum has to be high around the shop. I see this year being a good year for the team.
Chase Elliot has been around for year and I don't see reason why he can't snag his first win early on in the season. Johnson and Jr. will have a typical year. I'm going to say it right now, Johnson will win two races early and then take a break from victory lane for awhile. As everyone freaks out about this being the end of his career, he'll quietly continue to grind and find himself in the final four once again.
This season is sure to have a different feel. Make sure you check out part 2 of this series Thursday to see my predictions for the rest of the field and my playoff predictions.
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